Bad news is usually good for MBS and fixed-income investments in general, and today’s no exception. The full dose of doom and gloom (see below) is helping the MBS stack to have a very good day. Currently, the FNMA 4.0% is trading at 97-12, up +11 ticks, the FNMA 4.5% at 100-04, up +8 ticks, and the FNMA 5.0% at 102-04, up +7 ticks. The 10-year Treasury price has risen accordingly, with the yield falling from 3.54% on Wednesday to 3.49% today. The 2yr/10yr yield curve is a tad wider, from 242bps Wednesday to 250 today Friday, the markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday.

Staggering jobs-lost number blows past expectations; unemployment hits 9.5%
In June, nearly a half-million jobs vaporized, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning. The latest report showed that 467,000 jobs were lost during the month, and pegged the nation’s unemployment rate at 9.5% (the true rate probably being much higher – see below). The number is hugely worse than the -350,000 jobs lost that analysts expected, and continues to confound the Obama administration, which had promised that its unprecedented spending spree would turn around the employment picture. Stocks are in the tank, in response, with -2% losses almost right from the opening. Experts are anticipating that the unemployment rate will now reach well in to the 10% range by 2010. Weekly hours worked were measured at a low of 33.0 hours.

Educational note: Those of you who took economics might remember that the “official” unemployment rate is a politically-friendly figure in that it doesn't include “discouraged workers” and a few other components. Imagine if you got laid off last year, and have been looking for work for about a year now, and you’ve pretty much given up. So you decide to bag it for awhile, and focus on the kids, writing a business plan, going back to school, or whatever, while you wait for the economy to mend. Officially, you’re not part of the labor force, so you’re not considered unemployed, even though you really are. The BLS report has a largely-ignored table (A-12) which shows that including the discouraged worker total, the unemployment rate is already at 10% for June - - a full half-point higher than the “official” number. You also need to add the large number of people who have simply exited the official workforce (2-income families going down to 1-income, individuals doing work for cash - - like piano teaching, or odd jobs), etc. And, you also need to add those part-time workers who would like to be working full time. They’re officially counted as “employed,” when the real term should be “under-employed”. Net, the real unemployment numbers are much larger than you might read in the papers.

Initial unemployment claims remain above 600K for 22^nd week, with no sign of letting up.
For the 22^nd straight week, first time claims for unemployment exceeded the massive 600K level, with initial claims coming in at a whopping 615,000 (anything larger than 400K is considered recessionary). Continuing claims fell by -53,000, which amounts to a pittance (-0.8%) compared to the 6,700,000 receiving benefits, and largely ignores the millions of former recipients who are no longer receiving benefits after reaching their benefits expiration date. Most experts are now saying that the continuing claims number is no longer a useful measure. “A record large number of claims recipients are rolling off of the standard 26-week period, but still cannot find work,” said Deutsche Bank’s Joseph LaVorgna. “As such, they are eligible to receive benefits from the supplemental benefits programs but they do not show up as continuing claims recipients.”

On today’s date: July 2…
1865: William Booth founds Salvation Army (Army of the Salvation)
1890: Congress passes Sherman Antitrust Act
1901: Butch Cassidy and Sundance Kid rob train of $40,000 at Wagner Montana
1937: Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan disappear over Pacific Ocean
1976: Supreme Court rules death penalty not inherently cruel or unusual
1979: Susan B. Anthony dollar is issued, 1st U.S. coin to honor a woman

The last word:
“In the land of the skunks, he who has half a nose is king.” – Chris Farley.